Gambler’s Fallacy

Perhaps worthy of mention on 1 April, there was an interesting article some time ago about what’s called “gambler’s fallacy”. This is that, when there has been a sequence of random events (such as the toss of a coin) that fall in a particular way (say, tails), the odds change so that the sequence must somehow even out, increasing the chance of a heads on the subsequent spins. Somehow, it just feels inevitable that a heads will come next. But basic probability theory tells us that the events are statistically independent, meaning the odds are exactly the same on each flip. The chance of a heads is still 50% even if you’ve had 500 or 5,000 tails all in a row.

Of course, the odds of the the sequence continuing are high, so it would be a safe bet that the sequence won’t continue – but that’s not what gamblers are betting on.

The article went into some detail about how the fallacy is sometimes unconsciously factored into other decisions too.  The article refers to research that shows bank officers were more likely to rejects a loan application after they had accepted two in a row.

But gambling isn’t logical, is it?  It’s like buying a Lotto ticket because something good has happened, so it must be “my lucky day”.  Not logical but we all do it!

Scammed…nearly

I had a near-sleepless night when it dawned on me one evening recently, after reading an article in a newspaper, that I had sent an ID document by email to an address that had been given to me over the phone – and the address didn’t conform to with the bank’s usual email address template. True, I had initiated the call to the bank, and it was by way of follow up to an application I had commenced – but still, perhaps I had been conned by a rogue operator?

Needless to say, as soon as the lines opened in the morning, I rang to check what was going on.   Again, the person I got through to had access on his screen to all the information, and was able to talk knowledgeably about all aspects of the application. He reassured me that the email address that I’d been given was legitimate and that I was not in danger of having my ID compromised.

But lesson learnt, yet again – you can’t be too careful about emails and security issues.   I’m 99% comfortable that all is well on this occasion (presumably it’s unlikely that two separate employees of a major bank are in a conspiracy to misappropriate people’s ID!), but I should never have sent an email with such important information.  The danger, of course, is that it will go to a scam address (my concern here), but there’s also the risk that that the information is in digital form on the great big email server in the sky (if a scammer can be bothered trawling for it, especially if I do my best to delete it) and on the bank’s system (inevitable, I guess, because even if you don’t send it to them, they’ll record it).  I admit that I regard the likelihood of an email being intercepted whilst in transit as being the least of my concerns. 

At Bunnings

We all go to Bunnings, of course.  But often the issue is finding what you need.  We were out there recently, seeking a slightly unusual item – a device to go at the bottom of an external gate, to stop leaves from being blown under it. We asked a couple of staff, both of whom were helpful.  But they both sent us to  the same aisle, where a wide variety of draught stoppers for all types of doors were available – but not what we wanted.  So we resorted to wandering around and in a completely different section, another staff member pointed us in the correct direction.

So, the issue was “language”.    We didn’t know the proper name of the item we wanted, and our attempts to describe it resulted in a mis-match!   Even though we think we all speak the same language, there’s no easy way to overcome a lack of technical knowledge.   Maybe next time, we’ll take a photo of what we want with us.

 

Around the House

I know that there are “rules” in most houses, so I know that dishes have to be rinsed before being placed in the dishwasher, and that shoes have to be taken off at the door.   When hanging the washing out, I put the socks in their pairs.  I fluff up the cushions and usually hang my clothes up.

But a friend told that at their house, the rule is that the knives, spoons and forks each go into separate sections of the cutlery basket in the dishwasher.  This seems to me to take things to a new level.  Fortunately, it hasn’t been introduced at our house!

Dominion : the Making of the Western mind

This is one of the most impressive books I’ve read for a long time. Perhaps that says something about the other books I’ve been reading lately, but so be it.

In short, Tom Holland tracks the history of Western “thought” from the 6th Century BC onwards,  examining of Christianity’s influence on Western civilization so as to demonstrate that the religion’s influence continues to be seen in ethics and cultural norms throughout the world today.   The book extends up to and including the issues concerning the Islamic State.

There’s an immense amount of material in this book;  it’s very densely written.   However, it’s “solid” going, and because I borrowed the book from the local library, I was only halfway through it when the loan expired.  I wasn’t allowed to renew the loan because there was a waiting list of others who had reserved it.

So, I got up to about the 7th century.   I certainly learnt a lot about the world since early Greek times, too much to remember or to comment on here, but at least I now know a few more of the issues.   And Holland doesn’t resile from describing in detail the violence and brutality of life in those days. 

Holland approaches the topic by describing the influence of particular people, and the development of “themes” during particular eras, which naturally involves describing the events that were occurring in the world at the relevant time.   However, a reader who wanted to know which events took place when would need to look elsewhere.  He deals with the fall of Carthage, but not the Battle of Hastings (for example)

I was interested that one historical figure who seems to me to have been somewhat glossed over is Constantine the Great.  Of course, he rates a mention but not at length, and the Edict of Milan isn’t referred to by name in the book (and is not found in the index), although the fact that Constantine became very sympathetic to the Church is, of course, mentioned, as is Constantine’s experience before the Battle of the Milvian Bridge and his role in the development of the Nicene (Nicaean) Creed.

Having had to return the book, I’m putting in a request to borrow it again.

Rubbish and recycling

In some European cities, you have to take your rubbish to a bin in the street.   This concept seems to be creeping in, down Bayside way, where I noticed bins for glass to be recycled.   It’s the same idea as at Surf Coast, of course – don’t mix the glass with other recyclables.   But bins in the street?   Not sure about this. even though we have long had clothing recycling bins.

The Brits sometimes have “bottle banks” too, not always very tidy.   Often you seem to have to sort your glass according to colour.

But let’s stay away from the London arrangement, where you leave your rubbish in plastic bags out on the footpath!

 

Memories

I was going through some old photos. I remember my trips to Mongolia very well, and I can remember an encounter with some Bactrian camels – but I have a mental block about ever having ridden on one.   I can’t imagine that I would ever have been persuaded to do this.    But the camera doesn’t lie!

 

A “see through” fence

It was thoughtful of the authorities, when they upgraded the fence along the railway line, to provide some “see through” (mesh) panels close to the intersection.  They’re not of very much assistance to drivers of ordinary vehicles, but they’re better than nothing, and might conceivably assist drivers of trucks who are are higher up.

Williamstown

It’s been a while since we’ve been over to Williamstown but it was a lovely autumn day and we headed there to have lunch with D and D at the Customs House Hotel.

We then had a short walk around.   There’s a lot more open air dining now, no doubt as a result of Covid-19, and there were quite a few people about even though it was a weekday.

The only “downside” was the traffic congestion, both coming and going.

Something for everyone?

View from Gem Pier, with CBD across the Bay

Outdoor dining

And there’s even a UooUoo

Equinox

We’re just about at the equinox — the sun will cross over the equator at  7:37pm AEST on Saturday (20 March), and our nights will be longer than our days.

In Australia, the seasons are defined using full calendar months (autumn is March, April and May), but in some parts of the world the solstices and equinoxes are used to mark the transition between seasons.   Here, the past few days have been lovely autumn days, so it seems appropriate that we’ve “officially” been in autumn for the past couple of weeks.

Phases of the moon aren’t related to the equinox, but right now we’ve got a new moon, leading up the full moon at Easter.