Perhaps worthy of mention on 1 April, there was an interesting article some time ago about what’s called “gambler’s fallacy”. This is that, when there has been a sequence of random events (such as the toss of a coin) that fall in a particular way (say, tails), the odds change so that the sequence must somehow even out, increasing the chance of a heads on the subsequent spins. Somehow, it just feels inevitable that a heads will come next. But basic probability theory tells us that the events are statistically independent, meaning the odds are exactly the same on each flip. The chance of a heads is still 50% even if you’ve had 500 or 5,000 tails all in a row.
Of course, the odds of the the sequence continuing are high, so it would be a safe bet that the sequence won’t continue – but that’s not what gamblers are betting on.
The article went into some detail about how the fallacy is sometimes unconsciously factored into other decisions too. The article refers to research that shows bank officers were more likely to rejects a loan application after they had accepted two in a row.
But gambling isn’t logical, is it? It’s like buying a Lotto ticket because something good has happened, so it must be “my lucky day”. Not logical but we all do it!
Musings and Mutterings 